Archive for the ‘Predictions’ Category

Last night, Joel Aro and I went to the Seahawks final pre-season game at Century Link Field. The Seahawks beat the Oakland Raiders 21-3 (more) to finish the pre-season a perfect 4-0. The Seahawks begin the regular season next week in Arizona. Rookie Russell Wilson will start at quarterback.

A view from our seats.

I’m going to go out on a limb with these predictions. The Seahawks:

(1) will win eleven (11) games this year; and
(2) will win one playoff game.

You read it here first.

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My favorite four-day span of the year has come and gone. Thanksgiving weekend 2011 is officially behind us.

Family Joffe joined ...

We got it off to a great start on Thursday with the traditional Thanksgiving fare — lots of football and lots of food. This year the family Joffe joined us at casa de Jenkins. Regrettably Uncle Cole, who had been staying with us, opted out of the proceedings. Nevertheless the seven of us had a great time — although no one was particularly successful at keeping their food intake down. With Ronnie again doing a fantastic job in the kitchen (and Beth bringing some goodies of her own), that was understandable.

family Jenkins for Thanksgiving 2011.

(Black) Friday was basically a lay around day. Ronnie made it to Target by 7 am — why, I don’t know. I read a lot and parented. I also made it to my second-ever Sharkey poker night — this one at Rainier Golf and Country Club. I played for all of about thirty minutes — and made $156. I think that’s the key to poker — just don’t play.

One year on and we still can't get all the kids to look at the camera.

On Saturday I joined Harald and Isabel up at Snoqualmie Summit for the first skiing of the season. It was my first time out on my new skis and poles. Worked well if I do say so. Unfortunately Cole decided he’d had enough of Seattle — or more particularly, living in casa de Jenkins. We wish him well back in Phoenix.

First pic with my new iPhone 4s.

On Sunday we attended Cookies and Cocoa with Mrs. Claus at Sand Point. The kids got their pictures taken with Mrs. Claus and we all decorated cookies and had hot chocolate in the dining room. I wound the weekend down by watching the Seahawks give one away to the Redskins and then saw George Clooney’s “The Descendants” with Jeff Benezra at The Guild 45th. Prediction: Clooney and his co-star Shailene Woodley will receive Oscar nominations for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor, respectively.

The kids with Mrs. Claus at Sand Point CC.

Save the Seahawks’ debacle, not a bad weekend if I do say so.

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Since my ill-fated prediction that Inglorious Basterds would clean up at the Oscars, I’ve shied away from guessing the awards. I don’t really know what Hollywood thinks makes a great movie, and I’m not so sure greatness matters so much as personal popularity — or lack of it. (See Mel Gibson’s Passion of The Christ.)

Best movie I've seen in a long while.

But I’m going to go out on a limb again. Sarah’s Key, the amazing story of a reporter (Kristin Scott Thomas) who traces her would-be Paris’s home back to Nazi-occupied France in 1942, should make at least some noise at the next Oscars. I saw it last night at The Guild on 45th, and afterwards I literally raced home to hug my kids. Always a good thing.

If I were in the Academy I’d vote it Best Picture.

Unfortunately, given what I know about these things, that means it probably won’t win.

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A few weeks ago, I predicted that Martin Kaymer’s choice of neckwear at the 2011 World Matchplay Championship would spark a new fashion trend in the golf world.

Early signs are that I might be right. First Rick Young reported that Vaughn Cochran, who designed Kaymer’s buff (for fly fishermen, mind you), reported sales of 1,000 or so in six days, up from the usual seven or so per week. (More.) The folks at GolfWeek are reporting that, according to Cochran, the world’s leading buff manufacturer is already “ramp(ing) up designs for golf community.” (More.) On Wednesday my buddy Jeff Benezra reported to me that Bellevue Community College’s golf team was out at his club — and a few of the top players were wearing buffs. Then there was this:

Little did the world's best golfer know what he'd done.

Oh, and Daddy, who owned just one buff pre-Kaymer, now has a new “buff drawer.”

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One for the time capsule. Guest columnist Fareed Zakaria predicted in this week’s TIME that America’s best days are behind us.

Although I don’t agree with his opinion in total, I happen to think that, generally speaking, he’s right. Electing Barack Obama didn’t help matters. (More.)

I hope we’re wrong. But it’ll be interesting to see if how America looks twenty years from now, if/when Reese and Finn stumble on this post.

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This afternoon, German golfer Martin Kaymer donned what he called a “snood” in his semi-final match against Bubba Watson at the World Matchplay Championship. (Click here to buy.) Someone dubbed him the “Dude with the ‘tude in the Snood.” It’s kind of a pseudo-scarf apparently donned by a few prominent European soccer players. As it turns out, its actually a called a “buff” and its made for, among others, fly fishermen. (More.) Golf commentators were writing about it before the Watson-Kaymer match was even over.

Snood or buff, I look for these to be the next big thing in the world of golf fashion.

While I doubt many (if any) Tour pros will sport these athletic ascots anytime soon (too obviously copycatted), I’m guessing that sexually-secure weekend warriors everywhere will. I’m guessing that Titleist and Taylor Made/Adidas will be making them within 2-3 months. I’m guessing, too, that they’ll be quite the hot topic among country club fashionistas. The camps will divide between those who think real mean ought not wear them — count Manchester United’s Sir Alex Ferguson in that camp — and those who think they just look pretty cool.

I’m in the latter camp.

In the interest of demonstrating that I’m not a completely mindless trend-following lemming, I’ve been wearing these things for the past month or so. Here’s proof:

With the kids last week. Check out the neckwear.

I got mine on Sahalie.com. They’re supposed to be unisex and Sahalie has them listed as a men’s accessory, but in the pics they’re being worn by women. (Memo to Sahalie’s merchandising department: you may want to rethink that one.)

If golfers can wear painter’s hats, they can — and will — certainly wear these.

Especially when the world number one is wearing them.

UPDATE March 5, 2011: Rick Young over on ScoreGolf.com also predicts we’ll be seeing buffs in golf shops sooner rather than later. (More.)

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Maybe it’s a good thing Betcha.com lived such a short life. Because I had a good many predictions about this past U.S. Open that I would have posted on Betcha. And had they have been accepted, I would have lost every one of them:

  • “BETCHA: Either Luke Donald, Phil Mickelson, Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Padraig Harrington or Jim Furyk will win.” — LOSS: Graeme McDowell is not on my list.
  • “BETCHA: Tiger Woods will not finish higher than 10th place.” — LOSS: Cheetah finished T4.
  • “BETCHA: Brian Davis will finish in the top 10.” — LOSS. He missed the cut.
  • “BETCHA: Brian Gay will finish in the top 15.” — LOSS. He missed the cut.
  • “BETCHA: Bo Van Pelt will finish in the top 20.” — LOSS. He finished T41.
  • “BETCHA: Camillo Villegas will miss the cut.” — LOSS.
  • “BETCHA: Vijay Singh will miss the cut.” — LOSS.
  • “BETCHA: Tom Watson will finish in the top 20.” — LOSS. He finished T29, still not bad for a sixty year old.
  • “BETCHA: Tom Watson will be within five shots of the lead as late as Saturday.” — LOSS.
  • “BETCHA: Sergio Garcia will miss the cut. — LOSS.
  • That’s 0 fer 10. At $5 a pop — my comfort zone for wagers, even nonbinding ones — that’s $50. Even a broken watch is right once in a while. Maybe if I’d have listed a couple more bets I would have nailed one.

    Not putting Graeme McDowell in my top 5 was one of many mistakes I would have made had I listed bets on Betcha.com.

    Those losses were hypothetical. Betcha.com does not exist, thus I did not list those bets for others to accept and so I did not lose them. If I had, I could have always hit the “I wanna opt out” button and saved a few bucks for Father’s Day dinner. My losses in fantasy golf, however, were real. For the second straight stanza I (aka NickKnowsGolf in my league) came into the final tournament with a decent lead only to blow it on the final days. During the winter term I need Stephen Ames and Brandt Snedeker to play like Tour pros during the final round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Instead they shot a cumulative +7 and I lost the Winter stanza in our Yahoo! fantasy golf league. This time I just needed things to go okay. Instead I had Tiger on the bench when he shot 65 and started him when he shot 74. Had I started him on Saturday instead of Sunday I would have won. I did not.

    Had I have started Tiger Woods on Saturday (pictured) instead of Sunday I would have won my fantasy golf league.

    The irony as it relates to Betcha.com is again not lost. We play fantasy golf for real money — and the rules of the game do not give us the right to take it back if things go sideways. I think there’s something to the tune of $750 in our league, meaning I actually lost about $100 yesterday. The $50 I put in the pot is also gone and, unlike Betcha, I have no right to take it back.

    Watching the Open yesterday rooting for my guys I couldn’t help but thinking I was actually gambling. Yet fantasy sports is not gambling, and the only guy who has ever challenged fantasy sports as gambling got thrown out of court.

    Wonder if it has anything to do with the fact that so many people do it and to hold fantasy sports was gambling would mean that half the nation’s red-blooded males would be guilty of online gambling?

    Nah, that would be result-oriented judging. Judges would never do that.

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